Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds were right in line with yesterday afternoon's levels ahead of the 10am data. JOLTS (job openings) pushed yields back to yesterday's highs--perhaps with some help from the Senate's passage of the spending bill, but at that point, traders bought the dip in bond prices and pushed back into the day's range. It wasn't enough to get back to positive territory, but it made the day less of an obvious turning point in the bigger-picture. Perhaps a better way to say it would be that bonds still look open-minded when it comes to responding to Thursday's jobs report and next week's CPI.
Econ Data / Events
S&P Manufacturing PMI
52.9 vs 52.0 f'cast, 52.0 prev
ISM Manufacturing
49.0 vs 48.8 f'cast, 48.5 prev
ISM Employment
45.0 vs 47.0 f'cast, 46.8 prev
ISM Prices
69.7 vs 69 f'cast
Job Openings
7.769m vs 7.300m f'cast, 7.395m prev
Market Movement Recap
10:34 AM slightly stronger overnight, but progressively weaker in the AM--especially after 10am econ data. MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.256
12:01 PM 10yr yields are up 5bp at 4.273. MBS down a quarter point.
02:59 PM Modest recovery. MBS down only 5 ticks (.16) now. 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.25
It's been 88 days since the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was as low as it is today--close enough to 3 months. Some lenders may be higher or lower than they were yesterday depending on whether or not changed rates yesterday afternoon. Mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day, but can "reprice" if the underlying bond market moves enough in one direction or the other. Bonds improved enough yesterday afternoon for many lenders to offer slightly lower rates. Those lenders are a hair higher today, generally. In terms of the underlying bond market, things are just a bit better right now compared to yesterday morning and just a bit worse compared to yesterday afternoon. That deterioration mainly followed this morning's job openings data which showed another increase from the longer-term lows seen 2 months ago. Rates typically move higher if job openings are higher than expected, all else equal. But today's data-driven volatility is nothing compared to what could be seen on Thursday morning following the big jobs report (officially, the "Employment Situation" which offers a count of jobs created in June as well as an update to the unemployment rate).
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Tuesday brings the week's first decent dose of meaningful economic data with both S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. The PMI data was somewhat more debatable with headline levels slightly stronger than expected, but some internal components remaining bond-friendly. Job openings data was less equivocal, suggesting a marked bounce versus last month's lower levels (and the previous month's cycle lows). In other words, job openings now look more like they're leveling off after falling rapidly from 2022 through late 2024 or early 2025, depending on how one chooses to view the trend. Bonds have been more interested in responding to the job openings data, and this has MBS moving quickly back to yesterday's lows and yields near yesterday's highs.
Steady Gains in the PM Hours
It's common to see the effects of month/quarter-end trading most prominently in the PM hours and today's quarter-end session was no exception. A glut of bond buying just after 12:30pm got the part started and yields bottomed out just before the 4pm NYSE close. While 4pm is a time that's associated with stocks, it has come to be the larger of the two closing bells for the bond market on month/quarter-end days for a variety of reasons (de-emphasis of CME pit over the years, increased prevalence of ETF trading, large portfolio rebalancing that involves both stock/bond ETFs, thus arguing for one unified closing mark time). From here, econ data should take the wheel although it's always possible to see some new-month positions have an impact on the first day of a new month.
Econ Data / Events
Chicago PMI
40.4 vs 43.0 f'cast, 40.5 prev
Market Movement Recap
09:12 AM Modestly stronger overnight with gains at the start of EU trading. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.264
11:49 AM Very calm still. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.263
01:28 PM Month-end buying picking up a bit. 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.234. MBS up an eighth.
04:33 PM Strong month-end move into the close. MBS up almost a quarter point and 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.233
Watching Rates
Check our some recent articles and posts about current rates.
It's been 88 days since the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was as low as it is today--close enough to 3 months. Some lenders may be higher or lower than they were yesterday depending on whether or not changed rates yesterday afternoon. Mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day, but can "reprice" if the underlying bond market moves enough in one direction or the other. Bonds improved enough yesterday afternoon for many lenders to offer slightly lower rates. Those lenders are a hair higher today, generally. In terms of the underlying bond market, things are just a bit better right now compared to yesterday morning and just a bit worse compared to yesterday afternoon. That deterioration mainly followed this morning's job openings data which showed another increase from the longer-term lows seen 2 months ago. Rates typically move higher if job openings are higher than expected, all else equal. But today's data-driven volatility is nothing compared to what could be seen on Thursday morning following the big jobs report (officially, the "Employment Situation" which offers a count of jobs created in June as well as an update to the unemployment rate).
April 3rd and 4th saw the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates well into the "mid 6's." Many lenders were able to quote 6.5% at the time. Just a few days ago, we noted there was still a ways to go before breaking below those early April levels, but the past few days have taken us within striking distance. The average lender is now only 0.07% higher than they were on April 4th and that's a gap that can be traversed in as little as one day under the right circumstances. If it is destined to be traversed in the near feature, it would likely be due to exceptional weakness in the forthcoming economic data--especially Thursday's big jobs report. Conversely, if this week's economic data surprises to the upside, it would likely coincide with rates bouncing here and headline back into the recent range. And lastly, if this week's data doesn't cast a decisive vote in either direction, next week's inflation reports could easily break the tie. The most interesting aspect of today's movement was the movement itself. It didn't happen due to any interesting data or news headlines. Both stocks and bonds (which dictate rates) improved as traders moved portfolios into position for the end of the month/quarter. This can cause market movement independent of economic data/news.
Friday's mortgage rates ended up being right in line with Thursday's on average. At 6.72%, the MND daily rate index is as low as it's been since early April when it hit 6.60%. If you're thinking that 6.72 doesn't sound much higher than 6.60, you're right! Mortgage lenders tend to offer rates in 0.125% increments, so we're really only one notch away from those lows. After that, we'd need to go all the way back to October to see anything lower. While the mortgage market can languish sideways for weeks without moving outside a 0.12 range, there are also more than a few examples of that much movement in a single day, provided the news is sufficiently inspiring. The catch is that the movement could occur in either direction. In a general sense, the recent improvement has been a byproduct of slightly softer economic data and inflation. There are key reports that speak to those metrics over the next two weeks. Rates have more room to fall if the data shows a continued softening, but could spike abruptly if employment surges or tariff-driven inflation actually materializes.
After topping out on May 21st, the average day for mortgage rates has been a good one. This has been especially true since June 6th with our 30yr fixed index moving down almost 0.25% through this afternoon. Today's gains contributed nicely with a drop of 0.07%. Normally, we'd point to the economic release calendar to help explain this sort of momentum. There were numerous reports out this morning and several of them could be viewed as helpful for rates. But when rates move lower in response to economic data, we tend to see at least some semblance of weakness in the stock market--even if only briefly--and that was nowhere to be found. The implication is that the market is broadly shifting to expect a lower path for the Fed Funds Rate (something that would help both rates and stocks). It's always good to remember that the greater number of days in a mortgage rate winning streak, the greater the odds of a bounce. Sometimes that only means a single day moving modestly higher. Other times, the rate market hits a short term floor and moves back up into its recent range for a while. There is absolutely no way to know which sort of bounce the next one will be, only that it grows slightly more likely with each passing day of victory. Note: our winning streak is at 5 days currently, and we don't tend to call attention to these risks until we hit 8 days. Some of the longest streaks go more than 10 days.
