Modest Incidental Weakness
Despite a bit of incidental selling today, the bond market has survived the winter holiday season without even attempting to break outside the narrow prevailing range. This is especially true for shorter duration Treasuries and MBS. It has been and continues to be the case that we won't get a sense of the next wave of momentum until next week at the earliest. It could take even longer if the econ data fails to make a compelling case for better or worse.
Econ Data / Events
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8 vs 51.8 f'cast, 52.2 prev
Market Movement Recap
09:35 AM Modestly stronger overnight and little-changed so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.3bps at 4.165
01:29 PM weakest levels of the day. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.186
Heading into the week, we knew there was a high bar for any legitimate mortgage rate fireworks. In addition to a dearth of scheduled events with the power to cause volatility, the last two weeks of the year don't tend to see big changes in the bond market. There are exceptions, but 2025 wasn't one of them. In fact, bond yields and mortgage rates have been locked in a narrow, sideways range since September as the market waits for the most important economic reports to hit their stride again after being hobbled by the government shutdown. Yes, the big-ticket reports were already released on December, but the market expects them to be gradually more representative in the coming months. Next week brings several of these reports including Friday's jobs report--arguably the most important on any given month. With this data, we should see the return of more directional volatility in the rate market. The direction will depend on whether the data is stronger or weaker than expected. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
Credit Union and Real Estate Agent Relationship A November webinar featuring Telhio Credit Union Loan Officer Allie Hager and Realtor Kelly Hamilton of Realty Forward is still getting attention from credit unions focused on strengthening realtor relationships. Moderated by LenderLogix CEO Patrick O’Brien, the discussion explored how accessibility, communication, and modern technology are helping credit unions compete more effectively in today’s purchase-driven market. The full replay is available on demand and remains a worthwhile watch for teams planning their 2026 strategy. Watch the replay here. The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com. HUD, FHA, VA, HECM and Government Program News Whether it is about interest rates or programs, it is impossible to not mention the United States Government when it comes to residential lending. HUD, for one, continues to lead the pack in consumer home buying counseling. A few days ago out came the FHA’s annual report on the Mutual Mortgage Insurance (MMI) Fund, focusing on taxpayer stewardship, program integrity, and prioritizing American citizens while continuing to support homeownership and housing affordability. In fiscal year 2025, FHA insured more than 876,000 single-family mortgages, 83 percent of which supported first-time homebuyers, and over 28,000 reverse mortgages for seniors, with active insurance covering more than 8.1 million forward loans totaling over $1.6 trillion and $64.3 billion in HECM obligations. Strong oversight contributed to a robust financial position, with the MMI Fund’s capital ratio reaching 11.47 percent as of September 30, 2025, and economic net worth rising to $188.87 billion, up $16.11 billion from the prior year, reflecting continued improvement in the fund’s financial strength.
Friday is merely a day to be watched in case it misbehaves. The econ calendar is essentially empty (just S&P manufacturing PMI), overnight volatility was minimal, and bonds are fairly close to unchanged in the first few hours. The sort of serious trading that sends bigger picture signals won't arrive until next week. As such, even if today's trading misbehaves (e.g. 10yr breaking above 4.20%), it wouldn't be as alarming as next week holding above 4.20%.
Token Year-End Volatility
Wednesday's shortened session offered more excitement than the first two days of the week. There was a modicum of legitimate data-driven selling this morning in response to the jobless claims data. Bonds had trudged most of the way back toward unchanged levels by 1pm ET, but volatility picked up again at that point. While 2pm is the official early close, 1pm is the cut-off for many of the largest traders to close out their year-end positions. This makes for a big spike in volume at that time, and it can also result in a quick jolt to prices/yields. As far as year-end jolts go, today's was pretty normal and should not be taken as a sign of any underlying predisposition in the market.
Econ Data / Events
Continued Claims (Dec)/20
1,866K vs -- f'cast, 1923K prev
Jobless Claims (Dec)/27
199K vs 220K f'cast, 214K prev
Market Movement Recap
08:34 AM losing ground after claims data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.144
12:11 PM pushing back from weaker levels. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.138
01:09 PM Some quick year-end selling pressure. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.158
Watching Rates
Check our some recent articles and posts about current rates.
Heading into the week, we knew there was a high bar for any legitimate mortgage rate fireworks. In addition to a dearth of scheduled events with the power to cause volatility, the last two weeks of the year don't tend to see big changes in the bond market. There are exceptions, but 2025 wasn't one of them. In fact, bond yields and mortgage rates have been locked in a narrow, sideways range since September as the market waits for the most important economic reports to hit their stride again after being hobbled by the government shutdown. Yes, the big-ticket reports were already released on December, but the market expects them to be gradually more representative in the coming months. Next week brings several of these reports including Friday's jobs report--arguably the most important on any given month. With this data, we should see the return of more directional volatility in the rate market. The direction will depend on whether the data is stronger or weaker than expected. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
Although Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey (released today) suggested the lowest rates since October 2024, our daily numbers offer a bit more nuance. To be sure, October 28th and September 16th both saw distinctly lower rates this year. Today's rates are right in line with yesterday's as well as last Friday's. In other words, this week is flat compared to Friday although the average rate is lower so far. The bond market closes early today and will be fully closed tomorrow. Bonds reopen on Friday and then will be fully open for a normal week of trading next week. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
Mortgage rates continue operating in an excruciatingly narrow range near their lowest levels of the past few years. Yesterday was the 6th best day of 2025. Today is tied for 7th place after rates moved 0.01% higher on average. While the underlying bond market is fully open today, it's a slow time of year in terms of volume and volatility. Bigger movement becomes more likely by the end of next week thanks to the return of important economic reports and stronger trader participation after holiday absences.
With another holiday closure on deck and light calendar of events, the rate market is off to another uneventful start this week. In fact, the average lender barely budged from last Friday. But it was enough for MND's 30yr fixed rate index to tick down by 0.01%. This is the lowest level since October 28th--just barely edging out the lows seen on November 25th. There were only 5 days in November and one day in September with lower rates. Before that, you'd have to go back to September 2024 to see anything lower. As always, there's never any way to know what's next for rates. The outcome of next week's economic data could certainly have a say in that. What we do know is that the present zone has been a recurring lower boundary for the range going all the way back to late 2022.
